It is intriguing that the WP community is en route to making room for commercial addons as ‘first class citizens’ with free stuff. I see this as a sign of success but also as an indication of major trouble ahead for WP. Though I can’t think of a logical reason, four decades of software development seems to show that whenever a vendor/product/platform evolves away from its ‘message’ (its original ‘coolness’), big-time trouble ensues. Always and whenever.
As WP is chosen increasingly for robust, CMS-like systems (and, no doubt, this is happening in 2010), it will, inter alia, evolve to become more like EE. It simply has to, because there are only so many ways that medium and large systems can be CMSed.
I say ‘will’ evolve but that is the question to be answered. Will it? Can it? Should it?
I suspect WP is going to hit a major ‘wall’ of user frustration and community confusion sometime towards the end of 2010 over the pertinent question, “who are we?” I predict one or two serious attempts to fork WP in 2011. Whether this will be good or bad remains to be seen.
It would be silly to argue that EE hasn’t had a major failure with the timing of 2.0.
Short of wearing hairshirts, EllisLab knows this very well- it’s painfully obvious and they are smart businesspeople. If 2.0 had come out in 2008 or even 2009 before 1.6.X matured (wonderfully, I may add) and addons like Structure, Playa and others attached themselves to the ‘wrong’ platform (again 1.6.X instead of 2.X), the playing field would look very different. It’s a very big bummer. And it’s still beta as March, 2010 rolls in. Wow
Still, my gut feeling is that 2.X has come out barely in time, biz, buzz and community-wise. EE/CI, with all its flaws, is a true software application platform. I know of no other truly equivalent CMS platform. How can this not be awesome downstream?
In any case, we are still far nearer the beginning of the Web as a serious application platform than even its mid-phase. Let a thousand WP & EE flowers bloom. I hope WP pushes the heck out of EE developers, in fact, something that has not happened until now.
But I do think it’s baked into the cake already that the market for EE sites/applications should grow by 2X or more over the next few years, even if EE 2.X is merely ‘okay’. What’s not to like?
And as EE 2.X solidifies and slicks itself up by early 2011, we will be watching the angst over at WordpressMUBuddypress.orgcom with some amazement. I won’t be happy about that. This isn’t a zero-sum world and WP has done an amazing job over these years.
So has - and so is - EE still doing too.
Disclaimer: To those who have made strong points about theming: I’m not ripping on you in this, nor being some sort of EE fanboy. I personally feel EE cannot sustain WP-type theming, but gramps and others know EE far better than I do and I’d love to be proved wrong.